Greening up on Betfair

Published in BetGizmo.com Betfair by Bet Gizmo

Betfair Greenup, Betfair Green-up, Betfair greening up or going all green on Betfair are just some of the terms used to describe the process of guaranteeing a profit on Betfair no matter who wins. This may sound like a scam from a “get rich quick” email but it is a real Betfair technique that is very easy to apply.

The reason the technique is called greening up is because when it has been performed correctly the Betfair grid shows a green profit value for every selection in a race, thus guaranteeing a profit no matter who wins.

The technique can be used on a rising or falling market and has 3 basic steps that are performed on a single selection from the list of competitors. The example below is for a falling selection, i.e. a competitor who’s odds are shortening.

  • Step 1 Backing a selection whose odds are falling.
  • Step 2 Laying the selection to secure a profit.
  • Step 3 Greening up to guarantee a Betfair profit no-matter who wins.

Step 1 – Backing a selection whose odds are falling.

The first step is to identify a competitor whose odds are either falling or going to fall. When the selection has been identified a back bet is placed on that selection.

If a back bet of 2000 was placed on Stalking Shadow at odds of 2.2, this means that:

If Stalking Shadow wins, we win (2.2-1) x 2000 = 2400.00 ( and get our 2000 stake back )
If Stalking Shadow loses, we lose our stake of 2000.00

Step 2 – Laying the selection to secure a profit.

The market has been monitored for a while and as can be seen Stalking Shadow’s odds have now shortened to 1.25, it was decided that this was a good time to secure a profit on Stalking Shadow.

To secure the profit it is a simple task of laying exactly the same stake on Stalking Shadow. Laying 2000 at 1.25 on Stalking Shadow has the effect of canceling all the losses if Stalking Shadow loses and returning our original stake of 2000. This means that:

If Stalking Shadow wins we then win 2400 ( from step 1 ) and lose (1.26-1) x 2000 = 520, therefore 2400-520 = 1880.00.
If Staking Shadow loses we lose 2000 ( from step 1 ) and win 2000 from this lay -2000+2000 = 0.
Another way of calculating this is (original Back price – lay price) x stake i.e. (2.2 – 1.26) x 2000 = 1880.

This is a great position to achieve, if Stalking Shadow wins we win, but if Stalking Shadow loses we do not lose a penny.

Step 1 and step 2 can be performed as many times as required, remembering that the same stake values must be used for each step 1 – step 2 cycle. This is a simple form of Betfair trading!!

If desired we could stop here and wait for the race to run, the only problem is that after all our good work we are still reliant on Stalking Shadow winning for us to profit from this race.

Step 3 – Greening up to guarantee a Betfair profit.

If we wanted to stop at step 2 then that is fine, we just need Stalking Shadow to win. However, there is an alternative, we can “spread” the possible winnings of 1880.00 that Stalking Shadow is showing across the other competitors. This is performed by one simple calculation and another lay on Stalking Shadow.

This is normally performed just before the race is about to start and all step1 – step 2 cycles have been completed.

What we do is: Divide the profit showing on Stalking Shadow ( 1880.00 ) by the best lay price Stalking Shadow is showing ( 1.23 ) to give us a stake value, then lay this exact value on Stalking Shadow, so:

1880.00 / 1.23 = 1528 is the stake value to lay on Stalking Shadow
This has the effect of “spreading” the 1880.00 profit on Stalking Shadow across the other competitors, and because Betfair can see that Stalking Shadow is in profit we do not have to use our own money to do this.

The result is:

If Stalking Shadow wins we then win 1800 and lose (1.23-1) x 1528 = 351.44 giving a result of 1800-351.44 = 1528.56.
If Staking Shadow loses we win the lay bet of 1528.00

So by reducing the winnings if Stalking Shadow wins from 1880 to 1528.56 we have now created a position where we will profit no matter who eventually wins this race. A guaranteed profit that does not even require us to be concerned about who wins. Just turn off the PC and TV and have a well earned drink, knowing that the money is “in the bank”.

For a rising market

This technique can also be performed on a rising market. If you predict the odds will not fall, but rise then Step 1 should be a lay and step 2 should be a back, with step 3 remaining unchanged.

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